A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
